Gutting Watchdogs and the Civil Service

Firing the Statistician

Trump Fired the Jobs-Data Chief Hours After a Weak Report, Accusing Her of Faking Numbers

Select a Section to Explore

Chapter 1 — Trump Fired the Official Who Delivered the Numbers

Chapter 2 — What the Firing Cost, and What Followed

Chapter 3 — A Lawful Power Used Against Statistical Credibility

1 · Trump Fired the Official Who Delivered the Numbers

1 · Trump Fired the Official Who Delivered the Numbers — select a subtopic

1.1 — The Accusation and the Order

1.2 — A Revision Is Not Evidence of Fraud

1.3 — The White House Defended Competence, Not the Fraud Charge

1 · Trump Fired the Official Who Delivered the Numbers

1.1 · Trump Fired the Official Who Delivered the Numbers

The Accusation and the Order

Less than six hours after a weak jobs report on August 1, 2025, Trump ordered Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer fired. He accused her of faking jobs numbers to help Kamala Harris win the 2024 election. Former Bureau leaders, including one Trump appointed, said the firing undermined the credibility of the statistics.

Post announcing the firing of Erika McEntarfer

I was just informed that our Country’s “Jobs Numbers” are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala’s chances of Victory.

Donald J. Trump · August 1, 2025, 2:09 p.m. ET

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Sources

[1]U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation — July 2025, news release USDL-25-1202

[2]Donald J. Trump, post published on his own platform, status 114954846612623858

[3]Memorandum Opinion of Chief Judge James E. Boasberg, United States District Court for the District of Columbia, Misc. Action No. 26-12 (JEB), ECF No. 23, at 17

[4]The White House, "BLS Has Lengthy History of Inaccuracies, Incompetence"

[5]Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Statement on Commissioner McEntarfer's Removal," signed by co-chairs William Beach, Erica L. Groshen and Paul Schroeder

[6]U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Commissioners — William W. Beach," BLS History

[7]U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Commissioners — Erica L. Groshen," BLS History

[8]Donald J. Trump, post published on his own platform, status 114955222046259464

[9]Donald J. Trump, post published on his own platform, status 114970631477859993

[10]U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Commissioners — Erika McEntarfer," BLS History

[11]United States Senate, Roll Call Vote, 118th Congress, 2nd Session, Vote No. 7, on nomination PN837 — the Senate's own machine-readable record

[12]United States Senate, Roll Call Vote 118th Congress – 2nd Session, Vote No. 7 (PN837), the Senate's rendered vote page

[13]Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, letter to Senate leadership and the HELP Committee urging the confirmation of Erika McEntarfer, January 5, 2024

[14]Donald J. Trump, post published on his own platform, status 114966671063911029

[15]U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, "Revisions between over-the-month estimates," the Bureau's published revision record from 1979 to the present

1.2 · Trump Fired the Official Who Delivered the Numbers

A Revision Is Not Evidence of Fraud

The Bureau itself said the revisions were larger than normal. Revising estimates as more employers report is routine, and revisions go up as well as down. Trump wrote that a major correction came after the 2024 election; the Bureau had announced it on August 21, 2024.

The Employment Situation, July 2025: revisions

Revisions for May and June were larger than normal. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000, and the change for June was revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · August 1, 2025

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Sources

[1]U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation — July 2025, news release USDL-25-1202

[2]Donald J. Trump, post published on his own platform, status 114954846612623858

[8]Donald J. Trump, post published on his own platform, status 114955222046259464

[15]U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, "Revisions between over-the-month estimates," the Bureau's published revision record from 1979 to the present

[16]U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation — June 2025, news release, released July 3, 2025

[17]U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Preliminary Benchmark Announcement, carrying the -818,000 preliminary benchmark estimate for March 2024

1.3 · Trump Fired the Official Who Delivered the Numbers

The White House Defended Competence, Not the Fraud Charge

The White House defended the firing by citing large revisions, technical errors, and premature releases of sensitive data. Official reviews documented performance problems, and two BLS reviews were in progress. The White House did not accuse anyone of falsifying data or supply evidence for Trump's fraud charge.

Statement signed by co-chairs William Beach, Erica Groshen, and Paul Schroeder

The Commissioner does not determine what the numbers are but simply reports on what the data show.

Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics · August 1, 2025

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Sources

[4]The White House, "BLS Has Lengthy History of Inaccuracies, Incompetence"

[5]Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Statement on Commissioner McEntarfer's Removal," signed by co-chairs William Beach, Erica L. Groshen and Paul Schroeder

[6]U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Commissioners — William W. Beach," BLS History

[7]U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Commissioners — Erica L. Groshen," BLS History

[18]29 U.S.C. §3, "Commissioner; appointment and tenure of office; compensation," Office of the Law Revision Counsel

[19]Office of Inspector General, U.S. Department of Labor, FY 2026 Audit Workplan

[20]Office of Inspector General, U.S. Department of Labor, Semiannual Report to Congress, April 1, 2025 – September 30, 2025

[21]Office of Inspector General, U.S. Department of Labor, Semiannual Report to Congress, October 1, 2025 – March 31, 2026, Vol. 95

[22]U.S. Government Accountability Office, GAO-26-107538, Federal Statistics: Stakeholders Said Jobs Report Generally Meets Their Needs, but Opportunities Exist to Improve Data Quality

2 · What the Firing Cost, and What Followed

2 · What the Firing Cost, and What Followed — select a subtopic

2.1 — A Year to Install a Confirmed Successor

2.2 — Economists Estimated Roughly $20 Billion in Lost Output

2.3 — The Administration Also Removed Technical Advice

2.4 — The Shutdown Interrupted the Data and Raised a Legal Dispute

2 · What the Firing Cost, and What Followed

2.1 · What the Firing Cost, and What Followed

A Year to Install a Confirmed Successor

Trump promised a more competent replacement, then withdrew his first nominee within a month. An acting commissioner ran the Bureau until the Senate confirmed Brett Matsumoto, a career federal economist, on August 7, 2026, more than a year after the firing.

Statement on the BLS preliminary benchmark revision

Today’s massive downward revision gives the American people even more reason to doubt the integrity of data being published by BLS.

Lori Chavez-DeRemer, U.S. Secretary of Labor · September 9, 2025

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Sources

[2]Donald J. Trump, post published on his own platform, status 114954846612623858

[22]U.S. Government Accountability Office, GAO-26-107538, Federal Statistics: Stakeholders Said Jobs Report Generally Meets Their Needs, but Opportunities Exist to Improve Data Quality

[23]United States Senate, Nominations Confirmed (Civilian), PN961-7, August 7, 2026

[24]The White House, "Nominations Sent to the Senate," September 3, 2025

[25]Congressional Record, Senate, September 30, 2025, under the heading WITHDRAWALS

[26]Letter from a United States senator to the Director of the Office of Management and Budget and the Acting Commissioner of Labor Statistics, October 2, 2025

[27]Congressional Record, Senate, July 23, 2026, page S4272, nominations placed on the Executive Calendar

[28]U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Brett Matsumoto, Commissioner, biography last modified September 16, 2026

[29]U.S. Department of Labor, "Secretary Chavez-DeRemer statement on BLS preliminary benchmark revision"

2.2 · What the Firing Cost, and What Followed

Economists Estimated Roughly $20 Billion in Lost Output

Four economists estimated that the uncertainty associated with the firing implied roughly $20 billion in lost output. The figure is a modeled estimate from a working paper, adjusted for other news that day. The authors called it conservative and reported that businesses and markets kept using the Bureau's data.

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Sources

[5]Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Statement on Commissioner McEntarfer's Removal," signed by co-chairs William Beach, Erica L. Groshen and Paul Schroeder

[30]Nicholas Bloom, Erica L. Groshen, Duncan Hobbs, and Michael R. Strain, The Value of Reliable Statistics, NBER Working Paper 35135, April 2026, pp. 2, 7-18

2.3 · What the Firing Cost, and What Followed

The Administration Also Removed Technical Advice

In February 2025, Trump's administration eliminated three committees that advised the Bureau. GAO later found gaps in regular user feedback and high-level technical advice, with no replacement plan because resources were limited. The Bureau also had fewer staff and twelve vacant leadership positions, even as it resumed hiring.

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Sources

[22]U.S. Government Accountability Office, GAO-26-107538, Federal Statistics: Stakeholders Said Jobs Report Generally Meets Their Needs, but Opportunities Exist to Improve Data Quality

[31]U.S. Government Accountability Office, GAO-26-107538, June 2026, findings on external advice for the Jobs Report

[32]Donald J. Trump, Executive Order 14217, Commencing the Reduction of the Federal Bureaucracy, February 19, 2025

[33]American Statistical Association, 2026 Midyear Update: Resources and Leadership Supporting Federal Statistics, July 28, 2026, amended September 10, 2026

2.4 · What the Firing Cost, and What Followed

The Shutdown Interrupted the Data and Raised a Legal Dispute

The October 2025 shutdown delayed the September jobs report to November 20 and left October without an official unemployment rate. The Bureau followed a shutdown plan whose instructions date to 2022. Senator Elizabeth Warren argued that withholding a month of employment data violated the Bureau's statutory duty to publish monthly.

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Sources

[34]U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "2025 federal government shutdown impact on the Current Population Survey"

[35]U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Revised news release dates following the 2025 lapse in appropriations"

[36]U.S. Department of Labor, Plan for the Continuation of Limited Activities During a Lapse in Appropriations, September 26, 2025

[37]U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Post-Shutdown Revised Release Calendar (the 2013 lapse)

[38]William Beach, D.Phil., Fiscal Lab Explainer: Q&A on How the Government Shutdown Will Affect Reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fiscal Lab on Capitol Hill

[39]U.S. Department of Labor, Plan for the Continuation of Limited Activities During a Lapse in Appropriations, October 10, 2025

[40]U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "September 2025 CPI Release Rescheduled"

[41]Letter from a United States senator to the Director of the Office of Management and Budget and the Chief Statistician of the United States, October 16, 2025

[42]29 U.S.C. §2, "Collection, collation, and reports of labor statistics," Office of the Law Revision Counsel

3 · A Lawful Power Used Against Statistical Credibility

3 · A Lawful Power Used Against Statistical Credibility — select a subtopic

3.1 — The President Had the Power to Fire Her

3.2 — The Precedents Support Scrutiny, Not a Guaranteed Verdict

3.3 — The Charge Is Retaliation Against the Messenger

3 · A Lawful Power Used Against Statistical Credibility

3.1 · A Lawful Power Used Against Statistical Credibility

The President Had the Power to Fire Her

The firing was lawful. The commissioner's statute permits removal before the four-year term ends, and the Supreme Court ruled for Trump on removal power in a 2026 case about the Federal Trade Commission. Impeachment asks a different question: whether a president abused a power he held.

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Sources

[18]29 U.S.C. §3, "Commissioner; appointment and tenure of office; compensation," Office of the Law Revision Counsel

[43]Trump v. Slaughter, No. 25-332, 609 U.S. ___ (2026)

[44]Parsons v. United States, 167 U.S. 324 (1897)

[45]Shurtleff v. United States, 189 U.S. 311 (1903)

[46]Office of Management and Budget, Statistical Policy Directive No. 1, Fundamental Responsibilities of Federal Statistical Agencies and Recognized Statistical Units, 79 Fed. Reg. 71610

[47]U.S. Const. art. II, §4, National Archives transcription of the Constitution

[48]The Federalist No. 65 (Alexander Hamilton), Avalon Project, Yale Law School

3.2 · A Lawful Power Used Against Statistical Credibility

The Precedents Support Scrutiny, Not a Guaranteed Verdict

Andrew Johnson was impeached in 1868 over a removal and acquitted; the Senate never voted on the House's article aimed at his public speeches. Nixon's 1974 abuse-of-power article supplies an analogy, but it involved violations of rights and laws that are not alleged here.

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Sources

[2]Donald J. Trump, post published on his own platform, status 114954846612623858

[3]Memorandum Opinion of Chief Judge James E. Boasberg, United States District Court for the District of Columbia, Misc. Action No. 26-12 (JEB), ECF No. 23, at 17

[18]29 U.S.C. §3, "Commissioner; appointment and tenure of office; compensation," Office of the Law Revision Counsel

[49]3 Hinds' Precedents of the House of Representatives §§2418-2420, 2440-2443 (1907), Government Publishing Office

[50]Myers v. United States, 272 U.S. 52 (1926)

[51]3 Deschler's Precedents of the U.S. House of Representatives ch. 14 (Nixon impeachment proceedings), Government Publishing Office

3.3 · A Lawful Power Used Against Statistical Credibility

The Charge Is Retaliation Against the Messenger

Trump removed the official who delivered unwelcome numbers while publicly accusing her of falsifying jobs statistics to help Kamala Harris win the 2024 election. His own White House did not substantiate that accusation, and former Bureau leaders warned that the removal damaged statistical credibility. The impeachment case is that he used a lawful power to retaliate against the messenger and undermine a public trust.

Read the full chapter — all the detail, fully footnoted →

Sources

[1]U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation — July 2025, news release USDL-25-1202

[2]Donald J. Trump, post published on his own platform, status 114954846612623858

[4]The White House, "BLS Has Lengthy History of Inaccuracies, Incompetence"

[5]Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Statement on Commissioner McEntarfer's Removal," signed by co-chairs William Beach, Erica L. Groshen and Paul Schroeder

[18]29 U.S.C. §3, "Commissioner; appointment and tenure of office; compensation," Office of the Law Revision Counsel

[23]United States Senate, Nominations Confirmed (Civilian), PN961-7, August 7, 2026

[30]Nicholas Bloom, Erica L. Groshen, Duncan Hobbs, and Michael R. Strain, The Value of Reliable Statistics, NBER Working Paper 35135, April 2026, pp. 2, 7-18

[33]American Statistical Association, 2026 Midyear Update: Resources and Leadership Supporting Federal Statistics, July 28, 2026, amended September 10, 2026

[47]U.S. Const. art. II, §4, National Archives transcription of the Constitution

[48]The Federalist No. 65 (Alexander Hamilton), Avalon Project, Yale Law School